How much to withdraw when funds decline

To ensure that your retirement money lasts at least as long as you do, withdraw about 4 percent per year. The CR Money Lab examined three ways to deal with a nest egg that's 25 percent smaller. Using historical stock and bond returns over the past 82 years, we found that the higher the withdrawal rate and the more conservatively you invest, the sooner you'll run out of money. The older you are, the less impact a change of strategy will have. There's no guarantee, though, that your assets will grow at the rates we used.

AGE 60

Plan specifics The dream Plan B: Withdraw at same rate Plan C: Withdraw same amount Plan D: Move to safer investments
Portfolio value $600,000 $450,000 $450,000 $450,000
Withdrawal rate 4% 4% 5.3% 5.3%
Amount available $24,000 $18,000 $24,000 $24,000
Money runs out at age … 95+ 95+ 87 83

AGE 70

Plan specifics The dream Plan B: Withdraw at same rate Plan C: Withdraw same amount Plan D: Move to safer investments
Portfolio value $400,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000
Withdrawal rate 4% 4% 5.3% 5.3%
Amount available $16,000 $12,000 $16,000 $16,000
Money runs out at age … 95+ 95+ 95+ 93

AGE 80

Plan specifics The dream Plan B: Withdraw at same rate Plan C: Withdraw same amount Plan D: Move to safer investments
Portfolio value $250,000 $187,500 $187,500 $187,500
Withdrawal rate 4% 4% 5.3% 5.3%
Amount available $10,000 $7,500 $10,000 $10,000
Money runs out at age … 95+ 95+ 95+ 95+

Portfolio split between an investment in a large-cap stock index (60%) and long-term U.S. government bond index (40%). Calculations assume an annual, inflation-adjusted rate of return equal to the average annual performance from 1926 through late 2008. Plan D assumes a 40% stocks/60% bonds allocation. Note: Some figures have been rounded.
Posted: January 2009 — Consumer Reports Magazine issue: February 2009