New Long-Range, Affordable Electric Cars Coming Soon
A new wave of EV choices could compete head-to-head with traditional gas cars
You’re in luck if you’re looking for a lower-priced electric vehicle. Soon, you’ll be able to choose from a host of similarly priced new EVs that can get more than 200 miles on a single charge.
“In the next year, there are quite a lot of models in that sub-$35,000 range,” says Shannon Baker-Branstetter, CR’s senior policy counsel for energy and environment. “That is definitely in the range that a lot of new car buyers are looking at.”
Details on the New EVs
Ford SUV: Mustang-inspired, performance-focused SUV is in development. Ford says it will be on the market in 2020 with an estimated 300-mile range.
2019 Hyundai Kona EV: The automaker says this all-electric version of the Kona crossover gets up to 258 miles on a single charge. It has a starting price of $36,450—or $28,950 after the $7,500 federal tax credit is applied. CR recommends the gasoline version of the Kona, praising its nimble handling, easy-to-use controls, and standard safety features. We are testing a Kona EV now.
2019 Kia Niro EV: There are already hybrid and plug-in hybrid versions of the Niro. The EV version is coming this spring, has a reported range of 239 miles, and should start at around $38,000 before tax credits and incentives, according to Mel Yu, CR’s automotive analyst.
2020 Kia Soul EV: The redesigned Soul EV (shown at top) uses the same underlying hardware as the Kona and Niro EVs. It’s undergoing range
Nissan Leaf Plus: Nissan says the new Leaf Plus can go up to 226 miles on a single charge. That 40 percent increase over the standard Leaf is thanks to a 62-kWh battery pack (up from 40 kWh) and a higher-output powertrain. It is on sale, starting at $29,990. The increased range makes the Leaf more competitive with the likes of the Chevrolet
Tesla Model 3 (short range): The $35,000 Model 3, promised for three years, finally went on sale this winter. The automaker also announced that it’s launching more powerful charging stations that could restore as much as 75 miles of range in just 5 minutes.
Tesla Model Y: The Model Y expands the Tesla lineup as a crossover variation of the Model 3, with seating for up to seven. The first versions available will be the Long Range and Performance trims. These Model Y trims start at $47,000 and $60,000, respectively, and are scheduled to arrive in fall 2020. The entry-level Model Y trim, called Standard Range, won’t begin production until early 2021. All Model Ys come with forward collision warning, automatic emergency braking, and blind spot warning. Autopilot, with its semi-autonomous features, and "full self-driving capability" are each offered as options.
The EV Market Is Growing
These new cars are entering a market that’s expected to grow rapidly. Research and analytics firm IHS-Markit estimates that the share of EVs sold in the U.S. will increase to 6 percent of the market in 2025, up from about 1 percent today, driven largely by a global regulatory environment that favors electrification.
Sam Abuelsamid, senior analyst at automotive research and consulting firm Navigant, told CR that the Niro and Kona EVs are especially well-positioned to attract buyers who are on the fence about going electric.
“Both of those vehicles are in the subcompact to compact crossover segment, which is where the real market growth is right now,” he says. “Everybody is moving towards those types of smaller crossovers, and they’re launching their EVs in that space.”
Kia spokesman Neil Dunlop tells CR that the automaker is staying true to its roots as a mainstream brand by aiming the Niro EV and Soul EV at a mass market.
“We sense demand for EVs throughout the buyer spectrum—from premium/luxury through mainstream market sectors,” he says. “Kia, as a mainstream brand, is targeting a mainstream audience by offering two utility-oriented EVs in affordable price ranges.”
Watch Out for Expiring Tax Credits
When buying an electric car or a plug-in hybrid, you can currently get a federal tax credit of up to $7,500 as long as the manufacturer hasn’t sold more than 200,000 qualifying vehicles.
Once an automaker reaches that threshold, the credit begins to phase out. The full tax credit remains for the remainder of the quarter in which the automaker meets the threshold and for the quarter after that.
The credit is then cut in half for the next two quarters. Then it’s halved again for two more quarters. A year after reaching the threshold, the automaker’s vehicles are no longer eligible for any credit.
For instance, because Tesla already sold 200,000 cars by June 30, 2018, all Teslas delivered between Jan. 1 and June 30, 2019, are eligible for a reduced credit of $3,750. The credit drops to $1,875 on July 1, 2019, and expires completely for vehicles delivered on or after Jan. 1, 2020. GM confirmed that it reached the 200,000-vehicle threshold in the fourth quarter of 2018, so the tax credit will begin to phase out this year for the Bolt as well.
The federal tax credit is important because it keeps affordable EVs competitive with gasoline-powered vehicles, Baker-Branstetter says. “There is still a slight premium for those vehicles compared to their gas-powered competition,” she says.
The Impact of Incentives
When the Georgia Legislature ended a $5,000 tax credit for EVs in 2015, sales dropped from roughly 1,400 per month to fewer than 100 the month after the tax credit ended. Note that several states, including California and Colorado, continue to offer state rebates, tax credits, or other incentives for EV purchases.
To keep mainstream EVs affordable, automakers might have to make up the difference for expiring credits, Abuelsamid says. “Eventually, every OEM will have to drop prices as their eligibility for tax incentives expires,” he says. “Ultimately, they will have to drop prices if EVs are going to be cost-competitive with ICE [internal-combustion-engine] vehicles and start to gain real market share.”
Tesla already dropped prices from $1,000 to $2,000 on many of its new vehicles after its credit began its phaseout, and Abuelsamid says he “would expect a price drop on the Bolt soon in order to be more competitive with the new mainstream models.”
Possible Limited Availability Nationwide
This latest crop of affordable EVs are ready to go toe-to-toe against gasoline-powered vehicles, says Chelsea Sexton, an industry analyst and EV advocate. For example, the Kona EV, Soul EV, and Niro EV are based on vehicles that are already widely sold, and they boast ranges that are “certainly enough for many people, especially in multicar households,” she says.
Like Abuelsamid, she thinks that vehicles from Hyundai and Kia will attract new buyers who might not have previously considered going electric. The Hyundai Kona, for example, “has some of the Tesla-ish kind of stuff or I-Pace kind of specs going on, but for less money than I’d have to pay for one of the premium brands,” she says.
However, Kia and Hyundai are both expected to sell those new EVs in only a limited number of states—including California and other states that follow the California Air Resources Board’s ZEV (zero-emissions vehicle) mandate, a move that Baker-Branstetter says is shortsighted.
For example, Kia says that the Niro EV will be sold only in California, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas, and Washington. The Soul EV and Kona EV will have similarly limited distribution.
“It is a limiting strategy to only stick to those states,” Baker-Branstetter says. “Certainly there are people in other states who would be interested in the vehicle.”
Editor's note: This has been updated to add the upcoming Ford SUV and latest Tesla information.
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