2007 hurricane season update

As we reported in a May 11, 2007, post about the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, the next several months could see more storm and hurricane activity normal along the East Coast of the United States.

Echoing similar recent predictions by other forecasters, experts at the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center on May 22 announced that that the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be more intense than usual. "For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said the undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D.

The NOAA forecast a 75 percent probability that the 2007 season, which runs June 1 through November 30, will see above-normal activity; odds of a normal season are 20 percent, and 5 percent for below-normal activity. An average Atlantic season has 11 named storms, with six hurricanes, two of which are major, according to the NOAA.

Residents along or in the eastern Pacific could be in for a quieter hurricane season this year, however. The NOAA announced a 70 percent probability that the 2007 Pacific season should be below normal with only a 5 percent chance of above-normal activity.

The NOAA forecast points to 12 to 16 tropical storms (average is 15 or 16), six to nine of which will grow into hurricanes (average is nine), with two to four evolving into major hurricanes (average is four or five).—Steven H. Saltzman

Essential information: Refer to our free Storm & Emergency Guide for expert advice on dealing with a range of storm-related topics, including:

• preparing for an emergency like a hurricane;
• caring for pets before, during, and after a storm;
• handling financial and insurance matters that might arise;
• dealing with poststorm power failures; and much more.