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Taking a hard look at the relationship between peak oil (when the maximum rate of oil extraction is reached) and water shortages paints a grim picture.
Oil supplies from non-OPEC sources have already peaked, according to Dr. Peter Wells, an oil industry consultant who works for Toyota. Drilling may produce new sources, but they are likely to be much smaller and many times more expensive to extract than existing wells. Producing energy from untapped sources (such as shale and tar sands), as well as producing alternative energy requires massive amounts of water that the U.S. currently doesn't have.
Back-to-back presentations on these subjects at the recent Toyota Sustainable Mobility Seminar were enough to dampen the car enthusiasm of a room full of automotive journalists. In the final analysis, nothing is ever likely to be as cheap or convenient as the light, sweet crude oil of years past.
This raises two key questions: As a society, where do we go from here? And if you're in the business of making cars, how do you plan your future?
The answer to both questions involves learning to use less gas – and soon. The event last week in Portland, Oregon, showcased the alternatives. Portland has two forms of light rail (transit and trolleys), in addition to buses, car sharing, bike lanes, and even skateboard lanes and electric vehicle charging stations. With voter support, the city imposed an urban growth boundary in 1973 to limit sprawl, preserve open space, and concentrate development downtown. One effect was to reduce the need for cars and to make riding public transportation attractive. As some automotive journalists noted, it also reduced congestion and made the city more attractive for car drivers.
Other cities around the world and in the U.S. have made similar efforts. Boulder, Colorado, has a similar growth boundary. New York City is debating implementing a toll for bringing cars into the city, as London does already. Curitiba, a city in the south of Brazil, saves tax dollars by substituting bus lanes for light rail.
A tour of Portland revealed that the plan has helped make the city a vibrant, attractive place to live.
One afternoon, I had a few hours to kill before my flight home. I had read about a new mixed-use development in the Portland suburbs designed for people to be able to walk to stores and to the Max light-rail line. I decided to jump on the Max line and see if it was as easy to access as the city claimed. It couldn't have been simpler to walk the four blocks to the Max, wait for the right train, ride 20 minutes, and walk 1/2-block into the development, called Orenco, in the city of Hillsboro. Orenco proved to have attractive single-family homes, as well as townhouses with hidden two-car garages, condos, and lots of parks.
My brief excursion demonstrated that with the right planning, you can build appealing communities with the promise to reduce oil consumption by reducing the need to travel, as well as by replacing individual gasoline-powered cars with alternative fuels. (Long-term sustainability and application to varied communities in other locales is an open question, though it is an appealing prospect.)
Apparently Toyota thinks so too, as it is donating four of its used battery-powered RAV4 SUVs to the city for use in a city car sharing fleet.
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