NOAA's forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season

The the 2009 Atlantic storm season will start on June 1 (it runs through November 30), and last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast a 50 percent chance of a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season, and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season.

There's a 70 percent chance of the season having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three Category 3, 4 or 5 storms, says the NOAA. (Read the 2009 Atlantic storm season forecast from the experts at Colorado State University.)

NOAA officials are stressing two trends this year:

The first is the trend toward warmer temperatures in the North Atlantic, a result of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The AOM caused last year to be one of the most active hurricane seasons ever recorded, with 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and five major storms of Category 3 strength or higher. For the first time on record, six consecutive tropical cyclones made landfall on the U.S. mainland.

The second trend us that storms are lingering longer and depositing heavy rains over inland areas, so that flooding now accounts for more fatalities than high winds. Watch our video on flood insurance (right) and use the NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks tool to see which major storms have hit your area since 1851. Read more about flooding and flood insurance, and check the latest rates from the National Flood Insurance Program.

"The seasonal numbers are interesting, but they don't tell you when and where storms are going to make landfall or at what intensity," says Dennis Feltgen, a public-affairs officer for the National Hurricane Center, in Miami. "The one number you need to worry about is 'one'—as in that one storm that may hit you this year."

Feltgen urges you to plan early. "If the hurricane flags are already flying, it's going to increase your odds of making a wrong decision," Feltgen says. "Planning for a hurricane isn't overly expensive; it's largely a matter of having enough food and water and batteries on hand. When you go to the supermarket, look for an extra box of macaroni or jar of peanut butter on those more frequent two-for-one sales and set one aside."—Gian Trotta | e-mail | Twitter | Forums

Essential information: Use our Storm & Emergency Guide to be sure you're prepared for a natural disaster.