Missed Black Friday? TV deals still await patient shoppers

With both Black Friday and Cyber Monday now in our rear-view mirrors, many of us may be wondering if we've missed out on the year's best TV deals. Personally, I don't think so. While we did see some especially low prices during this year's Black Friday period, many of the best deals were either on special promotional models from the major brands, or on low-prices sets from secondary brands. So for those of us looking for a better set with more step-up features, the best might still be yet to come.

Here are a few reasons we think you'll continue to see some great deals on LCD and plasma TVs throughout the holiday shopping season, and beyond:

• Prices continue to decline. After a few years of heady double-digit price drops, we thought TV price decreases would level off to more moderate levels. But according to DisplaySearch's Paul Semenza, that hasn't happened, with HDTV prices falling 20 to 30 percent in the third quarter compared to the same time last year. We expect the trend to continue through the remainder of the year.
• Black Friday can set low-price expectations. Although prices generally go up after Black Friday, they seldom return to pre-Black Friday levels. For many of us who perused the Black Friday ads, the prices we saw can create an impression of what we think we should pay when we're ready to buy, preventing us from pulling the trigger on a set above that level. That could force renewed promotional activity around TVs.

• Retailers have extended the traditional Black Friday shopping period. It used to be that Black Friday sales were reserved for the day after Thanksgiving. Then it became a full three-day shopping weekend. This year we saw Black Friday promotions starting as early as a month before the actual day. It can be only a matter of time before Black Friday promotions are extended beyond the weekend, so they actually never end, just morph into pre-Christmas sales events.
• Economic uncertainty may fuel later buying. If retailers aren't seeing the kind of buying they expected, they'll likely continue to provide additional incentives—price cuts, "no-payment, no-interest" deals—right up through the Christmas buying season. This delayed purchasing could create inventory backlogs, which could force manufacturers or retailers to more aggressively price their current TV stock to make room for manufacturers' newer lineups.
• Super Bowl promotions may start earlier. Retailers know that nothing shows off a big-screen TV like a big game, so there are usually significant Super Bowl-related promotions in the weeks leading up to the big game, which will take place on Feb. 7. Just like the pre-Black Friday sales, we could see Super Bowl sales starting as early as the week after New Year's Day. But unlike most Black Friday sales, the emphasis could be on larger sets and step-up models with features such as 240Hz anti-blur technology, LED backlights, or Internet connectivity. That could result in the best prices we've seen for the biggest and most desirable models from the major brands.
• Spring cleaning: Deals on last-year's models. With new product lines typically arriving in the spring, manufacturers and retailers need to clear out inventories of last year's models, generally beginning in late February or early March. If you can wait this long, you can often get some incredible deals on major-brand models, especially if they lack a feature you can live without that's being touted in the newer version.

If you decided to pass up a Black Friday TV special but are still looking to buy one in the coming months, drop us a note in the "Comments" section below and let us know what kind of deals you're seeing. And if you think you'll be waiting until after New Year's Day, stay tuned for our annual Super Bowl HDTV Shopping Guide for tips on getting the best big-screen deal.—James K. Willcox