CES 2009: What to expect

What can consumers expect in the way of better, cooler, and maybe cheaper, electronics gear in the new year?

Not a whole lot, if one judges by the thin roster of announcements at this year's MacWorld, the gathering of the Apple community that opened yesterday in San Francisco. We'll get a fuller picture, though, at the bigger, broader Consumer Electronics Show, which opens on Thursday in Las Vegas.

CES is typically a splashy New Year's party for the electronics industry, with corks popped to celebrate the record year that just ended and in anticipation of still-better sales of the new gear about to be unveiled.

This year, of course, things look a little different. Electronic sales were flat, at best, for the holiday season and are predicted to be grim in 2009. If industry types are drinking these days, they're more likely gulping whisky than swigging champagne.

But CES will undoubtedly feature some cool and intriguing stuff; it always does. An intrepid team of Consumer Reports staffers will be covering many of the most interesting announcements over the next four or so days.

Here are some of my overarching expectations for the 2009 show:

A rose-colored industry view. Expect the Consumer Electronics Association, the trade group that runs CES, to spin the numbers to make the best possible case that consumers remain bullish on electronics. For example, look for assertions that consumers plan to pull back less on plans to get new TVs and computers than on the intent to buy many other items, as a recent survey from Forrester Research suggested.

Some innovations will be put on hold. Since product launches are typically scheduled months if not years in advance, many CES announcements were too far along to cancel when the economy went further south in the fall. But it's hard to imagine that the many job cuts announced by electronics sector, and the rumors of more to come from the likes of Sony, won't in some way affect development of new products.

Also, just because you unveil a product doesn't mean you'll necessarily launch it into an unreceptive marketplace. As manufacturers seek wiggle room to monitor the health of the economy, we may see greater vagueness than usual at CES about when announced products will actually hit the shelves, and at what prices.

That could be especially true for the most groundbreaking technology, the kind that's typically introduced at a high price before beginning its move towards the mainstream. Costly, cutting-edge gear is an awkward fit with a marketplace where premium anything is way out of fashion.

Which leads to…

Major manufacturers will continue to go downmarket.
Grief in the electronics industry has delivered some benefits for consumers. In 2008, many major brands—of TVs and laptops, for example—lowered prices on at least some brandlines to approach or even meet those of comparable offerings from newer, less-familiar names. Some even launched special, low-priced lines at mass-market retailers such as Wal-Mart and Target.

Given the success of those ventures, at least in helping the big players hold on to their share of the market, and the state of the economy, further such announcements are likely at CES. True, Apple is seemingly continuing to resist the trend to mainstream pricing, but then the Mac world has always been something of an alternative universe…

Look for our blogs from Macworld to continue, and those from CES to begin imminently.

On with the Shows!

—Paul Reynolds